This paper examines the impact of hedging and speculative pressures on the transition of the spot-futures relationships in the energy and metal markets. We build a Markov regime switching (MRS) model where hedging and speculative pressures affect the transition probabilities of spot-future...

This paper proposes a Markov regime switching framework for modeling carbon emission (CO2) allowances that combines a regime switching behavior and disequilibrium adjustments in the mean process, along with a state-dependent dynamic volatility process. We find that all regime switching based...