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Consumer confidence indicators and economic fluctuations in Nigeria
Ibrahim, Adamu; Bawa, Sani; Abdullahi, Ismaila S.; … - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 285-300
Consumer confidence indicators(CCI) serve as a veritable tool for providing useful information to policy makers … of consumers in their expectations about the general state of the economy, even if their pessimism were not based on … economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473528
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Prediction as sport : the promise of prediction polls and markets
Kingsley, Jeremy - 2015
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010488943
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Usage and performance of bellwether polls for election forecasting
Wilson, Elizabeth J.; Paleologos, David A. - In: International journal of market research : JMRS ; the … 60 (2018) 2, pp. 132-146
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011887181
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Eliminating Public Knowledge Biases in Information-Aggregation Mechanisms
Chen, Kay-Yut; Fine, Leslie R.; Huberman, Bernardo A. - In: Management Science 50 (2004) 7, pp. 983-994
We present a novel methodology for identifying public knowledge and eliminating the biases it creates when aggregating information in small group settings. A two-stage mechanism consisting of an information market and a coordination game is used to reveal and adjust for individuals' public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009218389
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Prediction markets: an information aggregation perspective to the forecasting problem
Tziralis, Georgios; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias - In: World Review of Entrepreneurship, Management and … 3 (2007) 3/4, pp. 251-259
Lately, traditional forecasting methods have been depicted as inferior to newer ones which are attempting to simulate … inverse approach to the forecasting problem. The typical process of attempting to subtractively model the expert's knowledge …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010670087
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RESULTS FROM A SIMPLE PREDICTION CONTEST
Blackwell, Calvin - In: Journal of Prediction Markets 5 (2011) 1, pp. 12-25
In a prediction contest participants compete for a prize by submitting guesses regarding an unknown variable; the winner of the contest is the participant who submits the most accurate guess. In this paper the results of a simple prediction contest are reported. In the contest, certain members of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010798250
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Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice
Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2006
Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as 'information markets', 'idea futures' or 'event futures', are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662203
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Keynes as the first behavioral economist : the case of the attribute-substitution heuristic
Koutsobinas, Thodoris T. - In: Journal of post-Keynesian economics : JPKE 37 (2014/2015) 2, pp. 337-355
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011618199
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Information aggregation in Poisson elections
Ekmekci, Mehmet; Lauermann, Stephan - In: Theoretical Economics 17 (2022) 1, pp. 1-23
The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population uncertainty. We find that the modern...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013189048
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Information aggregation in Poisson elections
Ekmekci, Mehmet; Lauermann, Stephan - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 17 (2022) 1, pp. 1-23
The modern Condorcet jury theorem states that under weak conditions, when voters have common interests, elections will aggregate information when the population is large, in any equilibrium. Here, we study the performance of large elections with population uncertainty. We find that the modern...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012806603