I use credit/GDP ratio to construct stylized credit cycles at global and regional levels over 1980-2010. Their average duration is between 12 and 15 years and for all the regions there is “a ceiling” and “a floor” curbing the amplitude of credit cycles. They are also largely...

The hedge fund represents a unique investment opportunity for the institutional and private investors in the diffusion-type financial systems. The main objective of this condensed article is to research the hedge fund’s optimal investment portfolio strategies selection in the global capital...

This aim of this study is to estimate the price of coffee and cocoa using a methodology based on Hodrick-Prescott filter, Kalman filter and a Markov Switching Model which, unlike linear models, allows the parameters to vary depending on the economic situation, the transitions between regimes are...

This article is an attempt to understand the causal factors behind fluctuations in aggregate output. We find an absence of bidirectional causality between the gross domestic product residual and the gross domestic capital formation residual as well as between the GDP residual and the residual of...

The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a commonly used method, particularly in potential output studies. However its suitability depends on a number of conditions. Very small open economies do not satisfy these as their macroeconomic series exhibit pronounced trends, large fluctuations and...

This paper aims to analyse the impact of port demand variability on the allocative efficiency of Spanish port authorities during the period 1986-2007. From a distance function model we can obtain a measure of allocative efficiency using two different approaches: error components approach and...

Penalized splines are widespread tools for the estimation of trend and cycle, since they allow a data driven estimation of the penalization parameter by the incorporation into a linear mixed model. Based on the equivalence of penalized splines and the Hodrick-Prescott filter, this paper connects...

The Hodrick-Prescott filter is the probably most popular tool for trend estimation in economics. Compared to other frequently used methods like the Baxter-King filter it allows to estimate the trend for the most recent periods of a time series. However, the Hodrick- Prescott filter suffers from...

The paper provides an alternative view to the Real and New Keynesian business cycle theories. The paper focuses on the combination of both real and nominal variables in explaining the cyclical movements of business cycles. We propose using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) technique on the production...

I describe preliminary results for seasonal decomposition procedure using a modified Hodrick-Prescott (Leser) filter. The procedure is simpler to implement compared to two currently most popular seasonal decomposition procedures - X-11 filters developed by the U.S. Census Bureau and SEATS...