It is shown here that uncertainty can significantly affect estimated surge levels over a wide range of annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). For AEPs in the range of 1 × 10<Superscript>−2</Superscript>–5 × 10<Superscript>−2</Superscript> in the New Orleans area, estimated surge values with and without consideration of uncertainty...</superscript></superscript>

Accurate quantification of hurricane surge probabilities is critically important for coastal planning and design. Recently, the joint probability method has been shown to yield statistically reliable surge probabilities and has quickly become the method of choice for extreme-value surge analysis...