The aim of this paper is to compare various methods which extract a Risk Neutral Density (RND) out of PIBOR as well as of Notional interest rate futures options and to investigate how traders react to a political event. We first focus on 5 dates surrounding the 1997 snap election and several...

While domestic interbank markets are often considered to work in an efficient way, cross-country bank lending appears to be subject to market imperfections leading to persistent interest rate differentials. In a model where banks need to cope with liquidity shocks by borrowing or by liquidating...

We argue that the interactions among the current account and budget balances and the real interest rate can provide more information about the effective degree of financial openness of an economy than simple saving-investment correlations. Cointegration tests reveal a variety of linkages between...

We test two alternative models of interest rates determination in informal rural credit markets, using data from a cross-sectional national household survey from Nepal. We find strong support for a full information, capacity-constrained and repeated oligopoly model with third-degree price...

We believe that group-lending institutions have incentives to include members outside the target-group of poor households. This implies a methodological problem that is rarely taken into account in empirical studies. We apply a general household survey, and find some evidence of non-poor...

This paper is concerned with the empirical investigation of models of the US short term interest rate, using a mixture of classical non-parametric methods and of Bayesian parametric methods. The shape of the drift and volatility functions of the usual di usion equation are rst investigated using...

An important recent development in the pricing of interest rate derivatives is the emergence of models that incorporate lognormal volatilities for forward Libor or forward swap rates while keeping interest rates stable. These market models have three attractive features: they preclude arbitrage...

Both the UK spot and futures markets in short term interest rates are found to react strongly to surprises in the scheduled announcements of the repo rate and RPI. Therefore these announcements should also affect the market for options on short term interest rates. Because the repo rate and RPI...

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates implies that the spread between short and long bond yields should forecast next period's change in the long yield. Regression based tests have systematically rejected the expectations hypothesis, with estimated coefficients far...

Empirical tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure hage almost without exception been tests of the time-series properties of interest rates. However, the expectations hypothesis has implications not just for the yield movement of a single pair of bond maturities over a number...