The path of the policy interest rate expected by financial markets was shifted by the ECB's forward guidance of July 2013. This provides tentative evidence that market expectations had, in advance of the forward guidance, diverged from a path that would have been consistent with the ECB's normal...

This paper investigates the exposure of industry level portfolios to oil price shocks. Our paper utilizes the Campbell (1991) decomposition of stock returns based on a log-linear approximation to the discounted present value relation while allowing for time varying expected returns. The results...