We study the 420 US drone strikes in Pakistan from 2006-2016, isolating causal effects on terrorism, anti-US sentiment, and radicalization via an instrumental variable strategy based on wind. Drone strikes are suggested to encourage terrorism in Pakistan, bearing responsibility for 16 percent of...

This study examines the causal joint effect of a new political regime and war against Iraq on life expectancy of Iranians for the period 1978–1988 during the revolution and war. I use a synthetic control approach to construct a synthetic Iran based on a weighted average of other Middle East...

This paper explores the global economic consequence of the Russian-Ukraine war in the month of invasion. Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. As a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, multiple international sanctions were imposed on Russia to compel Russia to de-escalate the crisis....

Economically developed countries as well as the developing countries are facing the brunt of terrorist activities, more recurrently in the last two decades. Poverty, unemployment, inequality and other socio-economic issues are intertwined with acts of violence and terrorism. The economic cost of...

With the rise of geopolitical tensions among the leading state actors, the Chinese citizens and companies are increasingly targeted by the unilateral restrictive measures. These frequently include the so-called secondary sanctions, i.e. penalties imposed on third parties for failing to comply...

This article evaluates the possible effects of the 11th package of sanctions against Russia in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war on Azerbaijan. This study is important because Russia is one of Azerbaijan's main trade partners and Azerbaijan's main export market in terms of non-oil sector...

In our paper, we provide a review of the literature to identify the main transmission channels through which geopolitical risks (GPR) influence m a cro-financial st ab ility. We be gi n by analyzing the existing measures of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, showing that GPR impacts economic...

While broad economic sanctions have long been used as instruments of foreign policy, targeted sanctions focusing on specific individuals, entities, and transactions are relatively new and less understood. We present a model of firm performance under sanctions where the target government may be...

Anecdotal evidence suggests high oil prices embolden leaders in oil-rich states to pursue more aggressive foreign policies. This article tests the conjecture in a sample of 153 countries for the time period 1947-2001. It finds strong evidence of a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate...