its effects over time. The estimation is also adapted to eliminate the bias that emerges when multiple shocks might oc … robust to different fiscal shocks datasets, the exclusion of particular countries and shocks, alternative estimation methods …

that standard identification schemes imply different priors on elasticities, generating a large dispersion in multiplier … inference on multipliers. Our results for the U.S. for the period 1947-2006 suggest that the probability of the tax multiplier … being larger than the spending multiplier is below 0.5 at all horizons …