This paper analyzes the effects of macroeconomic shocks on prices and output at different levels of aggregation using a bottom up approach. We show how to generate firm level impulse responses by incorporating experimental settings into surveys and by exposing firm executives to treatment...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft befindet sich im Frühjahr 2014 im Aufschwung. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in diesem Jahr voraussichtlich um 1,9 Prozent steigen. Das 68-Prozent-Prognoseintervall reicht dabei von 1,2 Prozent bis 2,6 Prozent. Treibende Kraft ist die Binnennachfrage. Der Anstieg der...

This paper studies the effects of a change in the Swiss franc/euro exchange rate floor, as introduced by the Swiss National Bank in September 2011 using a survey based impulse responses analysis. Survey based impulse responses incorporate experimental settings into representative firm surveys,...

Konjunkturprognosen unterliegen derzeit einer ungewöhnlich hohen Unsicherheit. Jeden Tag werden neue Massnahmen zur Bekämpfung der Corona-Pandemie angekündigt. Es herrscht nicht nur Unklarheit über die aktuelle und künftige Ausbreitung des Virus, sondern auch über staatliche...

In this paper, we investigate the transmission channels of oil price shocks using a factorial survey. We confront CEOs and CFOs of a representative sample of firms with a hypothetical vignette in which the oil price rises exogenously above managers' baseline expectations. The managers then...

In this paper, we investigate the transmission channels of oil price shocks using a factorial survey. We confront CEOs and CFOs of a representative sample of firms with a hypothetical vignette in which the oil price rises exogenously above managers' baseline expectations. The managers then...

This paper examines the incidence of firm bankruptcies and start-ups in Switzerland based on unique register data. We propose to assess the frequency of bankruptcies over time using the concept of excess mortality. During the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and the first half of 2021, bankruptcy rates...