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Forecasting Macroeconomic Risk in Real Time : Great and Covid-19 Recessions

De Santis, Roberto A. - 2020

We show that financial variables contribute to the forecast of GDP growth during the Great Recession, providing additional insights on both first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. If a recession is due to an unforeseen shock (such as the Covid-19 recession), financial variables...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012829414

Forecasting macroeconomic risk in real time : great and Covid-19 recessions

De Santis, Roberto A.; Van der Veken, Wouter - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241245

The global economic crisis reflected in the statistical forecasts

Ionescu, Victor-Romeo - In: EuroEconomica 39 (2020) 3, pp. 162-170

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012613298

The Impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles : A Markov-switching Panel Approach

Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; De Cian, Enrica; … - 2021

This paper examines the impact of climate shocks on 13 European economies analysing jointly business and financial cycles, in different phases and disentangling the effects for different sector channels. A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching framework is proposed to jointly estimate the impact of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013241980

Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?

Goulet Coulombe, Philippe; Marcellino, Massimiliano; … - 2021

Based on evidence gathered from a newly built large macroeconomic data set for the UK, labeled UK-MD and comparable to similar datasets for the US and Canada, it seems the most promising avenue for forecasting during the pandemic is to allow for general forms of nonlinearity by using machine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243863

Confidence and the Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in U.S. Recessions

Zhang, Fang - 2016

This paper studies the role of confidence in the transmission of uncertainty shocks during U.S. recessions. I use smooth-transition VAR to examine the regime-dependent effect of uncertainty shocks, and a counterfactual decomposition to isolate the role of confidence when the economy is in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002329

The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks

Caldara, Dario; Fuentes-Albero, Cristina; Gilchrist, Simon - 2016

The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important drivers of economic fluctuations. Empirically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011563004

The impact of uncertainty and financial shocks in recessions and booms

Salzmann, Leonard - 2020

The literature has widely discussed the role of financial and economic uncertainty shocks for the macroeconomy. However, it has turned out to be difficult to isolate these shocks from financial market indicators and uncertainty proxies because any identifying restriction on their response...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012429635

Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) on the world economy

Fernandes, Nuno - 2020 - Revised, April 13, 2020, version 2.0

This report discusses the economic impact of the Coronavirus/COVID-19 crisis across industries, and countries. It also …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012703975

Diminishing Dollar Hegemony : What Wars and Sanctions Failed to Accomplish, COVID-19 Has

Taskinsoy, John - 2020

East as a whole and a host of other countries in Europe. Coronavirus was the final blow to put the already fragile world … economy into state of coma. The world's nations would have been in a better state financially to fight coronavirus if the …, United States unlike any country can engage in more than one war simultaneously, but this time the unusual enemy coronavirus …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837594