This Roundup discusses the literature on the effects of uncertainty on economic activity. Uncertainty will be generally referred to as the agents' inability to form clear expectations about the future path of relevant economic variables. After motivating the analysis from a policy perspective,...

Structural VAR models require two ingredients: (i) Informational sufficiency, and (ii) a valid identification strategy. These conditions are unlikely to be met by small-scale recursively identified VAR models. I propose a Bayesian Proxy Factor-Augmented VAR (BP-FAVAR) to combine a large...

The notes in this compilation provide an indication of the possible economic and financial impact of Brexit on the euro-area/EU economy. Notwithstanding the potential adverse effects, Brexit could also provide an opportunity for far-reaching reform to the euro area governance. The notes have...

The notes in this compilation provide an indication of the possible economic and financial impact of Brexit on the euro-area/EU economy. Notwithstanding the potential adverse effects, Brexit could also provide an opportunity for far-reaching reform to the euro area governance. The notes have...

The ECB has engaged in several forms of unconventional monetary policy since 2007. This report documents empirically that the implemented measures were effective. In a counter-factual analysis, the report simulates the effects of an unconventional monetary policy shock of -10 basis points to...

This paper introduces a flexible local projection that generalises the model by Jorda (2005) to a non-parametric setting using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Monte Carlo experiments show that our BART-LP model is able to capture non-linearities in the impulse responses. Our first...