Similar Search Results

Using Global VAR Models for Scenario-Based Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew - 2012

This chapter demonstrates the usefulness of the GVAR modelling framework as a tool for scenario-based forecasting and counterfactual analysis. Working with the GVAR model developed by Greenwood-Nimmo, Nguyen and Shin (2010, J. Appl. Econometrics), we first show how probabilistic forecasting can...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108754

Nowcasting and Forecasting GDP in Emerging Markets Using Global Financial and Macroeconomic Diffusion Indexes

Cepni, Oguzhan - 2018

In this paper, we contribute to the nascent literature on nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging market economies using big data methods. This is done by analyzing the usefulness of various dimension reduction, machine learning and shrinkage methods including sparse principal component...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012915427

Forecasting US economic growth in downturns using cross-country data

Lyu, Yifei; Nie, Jun; Yang, Shu-Kuei X. - In: Economics letters 198 (2021), pp. 1-5

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605756

A probit model for the state of the Greek GDP growth

Degiannakis, Stavros - In: International Journal of Financial Studies : open … 3 (2015) 3, pp. 381-392

The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011312197

Using global VAR models for scenario-based forecasting and policy analysis

Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew; Viet Hoang Nguyen; Shin, Yongcheol - In: The GVAR handbook : structure and applications of a …, (pp. 97-113). 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009730024

Forecasting crude oil futures prices using global macroeconomic news sentiment

Sadik, Zryan A.; Date, Paresh M.; Mitra, Gautam - In: IMA journal of management mathematics 31 (2020) 2, pp. 190-215

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181862

Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting - Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany

Buchen, Teresa - 2013

The use of large datasets for macroeconomic forecasting has received a great deal of interest recently. Boosting is one possible method of using high-dimensional data for this purpose. It is a stage-wise additive modelling procedure, which, in a linear specification, becomes a variable selection...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085278

Assessing the macroeconomic forecasting performance of boosting : evidence for the United States, the Euro Area, and Germany

Buchen, Teresa; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721997

COVID-19 outbreak and beyond : the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting

Kaufmann, Sylvia - In: Swiss journal of economics and statistics 156 (2020) 1/12, pp. 1-12

The number of short-time workers from January to April 2020 is used to now- and forecast quarterly GDP growth. We purge … forecast quite precisely the decrease in GDP during the financial crisis. It predicts a mean decline in GDP of 5.7% over the … next two quarters. Without additional growth stimulus, the GDP level forecast remains persistently 4% lower in the long run …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392543

Covid-19 outbreak and beyond : the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting

Kaufmann, Sylvia - 2020

forecast quite precisely the decrease in GDP during the financial crisis. It predicts a mean decline in GDP of 5.7% over the … next two quarters. Without additional growth stimulus, the GDP level forecast remains persistently 4% lower in the long run …. The uncertainty is large, as the 95% highest forecast density interval covers a decrease in GDP as large as 9%. A recovery …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012224722