This article discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to a GDP decline in range between 0.5% and 3%...

• Using the KITE model suite, we study the economic costs of the Trump tariff policy for Europe, and analyze the potential for trade diversion from China. • If the current tariff regime stays in place, trade between the U.S. and China would fall dramatically, hurting mainly the U.S. and the...

Trump's renewed tariffs on traditional allies-including the EU, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil-signal a return to aggressive protectionism, openly disregarding WTO rules and threatening the stability of the global trade system. The authors argue that unilateral retaliation by individual countries is...

Kürzlich veröffentlichte BIP-Zahlen bestätigen, dass die deutsche Wirtschaft dem Ende der russischen Gasimporte standgehalten hat und im vergangenen Winter sogar eine Rezession vermieden wurde. Dieses Ergebnis sollte die im letzten Jahr durch das "Was wäre, wenn"-Papier (Bachmann et al.,...