Idiosyncratic labor incomes are typically modeled either by stochastic processes with heterogeneous income profiles (HIPs) or restricted income profiles (RIPs). The HIP assumes that individual labor income grows deterministically at an unobserved rate and contains a persistent but stationary...

U.S. consumption has gone through steep ups and downs since 2000. We quantify the statistical impact of income, unemployment, house prices, credit scores, debt, financial assets, expectations, foreclosures, and inequality on county-level consumption growth for four subperiods: the "dot-com...

U.S. consumption has gone through steep ups and downs since 2000, but the causes of these fluctuations are still imperfectly identified. We quantify the relative statistical impact of income, unemployment, house prices, credit scores, debt, expectations, foreclosures, inequality, and...