Developed economies have experienced slower growth since the 2008 Önancial crisis, creating fears of "secular stagnation." Rational expectations models have forward-looking bubble solutions, which could cause this; here we investigate the case of Japan. We show that a New Keynesian model with a...

Maximum Likelihood (ML) shows both lower power and higher bias in small sample Monte Carlo experiments than Indirect Inference (II) and IIís higher power comes from its use of the model-restricted distribution of the auxiliary model coeffi cients (Le et al. 2016). We show here that IIís higher...

Considerable micro-level evidence suggests that price/wage contract durations fluctuate with the state of the economy, particularly inflation; nonetheless, macro-level evidence for this is scarce. We incorporate state-dependent price/wage setting into an open economy DSGE model to investigate...

Macroeconomic researchers use a variety of estimators to parameterise their models empirically. One such is FIML; another is a form of indirect inference we term "informal" under which data features are "targeted" by the model -i.e. parameters are chosen so that model-simulated features...

A common practice in estimating parameters in DSGE models is to Önd a set that when simulated gets close to an average of certain data moments; the modelís simulated performance for other moments is then compared to the data for these as an informal test of the model. We call this procedure...

In this short article we explain how to test an economic model using Indirect Inference. We then go on to show how you can use this test to estimate the model.

This paper gives money a role in providing cheap collateral in a model of banking; besides the Taylor Rule, monetary policy can affect the risk-premium on bank lending to firms by varying the supply of M0, so at the zero bound monetary policy is effective; fiscal policy crowds out investment via...

This paper develops a model of the Chinese economy using a DSGE framework that accommodates a banking sector and money. The model is used to shed light on the period of the recent period of financial crisis. It differs from other applications in the use of indirect inference to estimate and test...

Using Monte Carlo experiments, we examine the performance of indirect inference tests of DSGE models in small samples, using various models in widespread use. We compare these with tests based on direct inference (using the Likelihood Ratio). We find that both tests have power so that a...

This paper addresses the growing gulf between traditional macroeconometrics and the increasingly dominant preference among macroeconomists to use DSGE models and to estimate them using Bayesian estimation with strong priors but not to test them as they are likely to fail conventional statistical...