This paper considers whether the Phillips curve can explain the recent behavior of inflation in the United States. Standard formulations of the model predict that the ongoing large shortfall in economic activity relative to full employment should have led to deflation over the past several...

We review the Stata statistical package and evaluate its suitability for applied research.

This tutorial will discuss a number of elementary Stata programming constructs and discuss how they may be used to automate and robustify common data manipulation, estimation and graphics tasks. Those used to the syntax of other statistical packages or programming languages must adopt a...

Relative prices are nonstationary and standard root-T inference is invalid for demand systems. But demand systems are nonlinear functions of relative prices, and standard methods for dealing with nonstationarity in linear models cannot be used. Demand system residuals are also frequently found...

This paper assesses the apparent decline during the 1990s in the unemployment rate associated with stable inflation≥the so-called "NAIRU." The paper argues that supply shocks alone are not sufficient to account for this decline and that changes in labor markets are in part responsible. I...

This paper confirms that the unemployment rate associated with stable inflation, the so-called "NAIRU," probably has declined in recent years, after having risen sharply during the late 1970s and early 1980s. Although a demographic shift toward a less experienced workforce and an unexpected...

We describe the Stata software environment, and illustrate how it may be profitably employed for applied economic research. Stata stands between "point and click" statistical packages and matrix languages in terms of extensibility and ease of use, and provides web-accessible features that...

Kydland and Prescott first identified the inflationary bias that results when a central bank does not precommit to a monetary policy rule. Subsequent work, published over the past twenty five years, demonstrates that this inflationary bias can be minimized by appointing central bankers whose...

This paper is a review of the statistical package Stata, version 8.1, with special emphasis on its time series capabilities. The program which generates empirical results and graphics in the paper may also be downloaded.

This paper addresses the problem of multiple equilibria in a model of time-consistent monetary policy. It suggests that this problem originates in the assumption that agents have rational expectations and proposes several alternative restrictions on expectations that allow the monetary authority...