This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to the analysis of inflation, output growth and global imbalances among a group of 33 countries (26 regions). We account for structural instability by use of country-specific intercept shifts, the timings of which are identified taking into...

We investigate asymmetries in the relationship between the cross-sectional mean (aggregate) rate of inflation and the second and third central moments of the cross-sectional distribution of relative prices by means of a modified Calvo pricing model with regime-dependent price rigidities. We...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...