This paper critically evaluates debates over the causes of U.S. inflation. We first show that claims that the Biden stimulus was the major cause of inflation are mistaken: the key data series – stimulus spending and inflation – move dramatically out of phase. While the first ebbs quickly,...

Did trade integration suppress inflation in the United States? Conventional wisdom says “yes,” based on the disinflationary supply-side impacts of trade. We argue that these supply-side arguments are incomplete, because trade integration also influences aggregate demand. Our analysis...

Did trade integration suppress inflation in the United States? We say no, in contradiction to the conventional wisdom. Our answer leverages two basic facts about the rise of trade: offshoring accounts for a large share of it, and it was a long-lasting, phased-in shock. Incorporating these...