With the concept of trend inflation now widely understood as to be important as a measure of the public's perception of the inflation goal of the central bank and important to the accuracy of longer-term inflation forecasts, this paper uses Bayesian methods to assess alternative models of trend...

This paper reports the results of estimating a Markov-Switching New Keynesian (MSNK) model using Bayesian methods. The broadest and best fitting MSNK model is a four-regime model allowing independent changes in the regimes governing monetary policy and the volatility of the shocks. We use the...

Foreword / Esther L. George -- Introduction / Jonathan L. Willis -- The moderators - James Poterba, Erica L. Groshen -- Customer markets and financial frictions: implications for inflation dynamics / Simon Gilchrist, Egon Zakrajšek -- Commentary / Peter J. Klenow -- The international price...