This paper uses tools from the classical theory of inflation for UK Consumer Price Inflation from 1970Q1 to 2017Q4. In particular, we adopt augmented Phillips curve type equations within a linear and regime-switching framework where regimes are governed by previous inflation rates. Our...

March 2007 saw an increase of 3.1% in UK inflation and triggered the first explanatory letter from the Governor of the Bank of England to the Chancellor of the Exchequer since the Bank of England was granted operational independence in May 1997. The letter gave rise to a lively debate on whether...

The aims of this paper are estimate and forecast the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or NAIRU, for Brazilian unemployment time series data. In doing so, we introduce a methodology for estimating mixed additive seasonal autoregressive (MASAR) models, by the Generalized Method of...

The paper develops a Romer-type growth model with a research sector, a manufacturing sector, and a financial sector and shows that inflation has an adverse effect on economic growth. Higher inflation increases the incentives for agents to use money substitutes through financial services in an...

Many empirical studies have found that interest rate increases have a positive effect on the price level. This paper pursues an obvious, but neglected explanation: interest payments are a cost of production that is at least in part passed on to customers. A model shows that the cost- push effect...