Showing 1 - 10 of 16
This paper analyses the empirical relationship between inflation and growth using a panel data estimation technique, Multiple Regime Panel Smooth Transition Regression (MR-PSTR), which takes into account the nonlinearities in the data. By using a panel data set for 10 African countries that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011165589
We try and detect whether there exists a threshold level of inflation for the US economy over 1801-2013, beyond which it has a negative effect on economic growth. We use a combination of nonparametric (NP) and instrumental variable semiparametric (SNP-IV) methods to obtain inflation thresholds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095428
We compare inflation forecasts of a vector fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (VARFIMA) model against standard forecasting models. U.S. inflation forecasts improve when controlling for persistence and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Importantly, the VARFIMA model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095456
The conduct of inflation targeting is heavily dependent on accurate inflation forecasts. Non-linear models have increasingly featured, along with linear counterparts, in the forecasting literature. In this study, we focus on forecasting South African infl ation by means of non-linear models and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095462
This paper exploits the Lucas’ (1973) signal extraction model to study the effect of uncertainty in the output-inflation trade-off on inflation, using a monetary model with asymmetric central bank preferences over inflation and output. We show that the implication of the uncertainty is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011095467
This study investigates the asymmetric and time-varying causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty in South Africa within a conditional Gaussian Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model framework. The MS-VAR model is capable of determining both the sign and direction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011125860
In this paper we evaluate inflation persistence in the U.S. using long range monthly and annual data. The importance of inflation persistence is crucial to policy authorities and market participants, since the level of inflation persistence provides an indication on the susceptibility of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011149767
The main objective of central banks around the world is the achievement and maintenance of price stability, which actually creates an environment conducive for faster economic growth. Therefore, it is important for policy makers to understand the relationship between inflation and economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010580993
This paper evaluates the welfare gain from reducing inflation permanently from two percent to price stability and compares it the output cost associate with this transition. The paper emphasizes the distortions caused by the interaction of inflation and capital income taxation, in calculating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005039673
The paper develops a short-run model of a small open financially repressed economy characterized by unorganized money markets, intermediate good imports, capital mobility and flexible exchange rates. The analysis shows that financial liberalization, in the form of increased rate of interest on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773168