We examine the global dimension of inflation in 24 OECD countries between 1980 and 2007in a traditional Phillips curve framework. We decompose output gaps and changes in unitlabor costs into common (or global) and idiosyncratic components using a factor analysis andintroduce these components...

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of manyinstitutions. However, to the best of our knowledge their performance has notbeen investigated yet. In this work, we study the Bank of England’s risk forecastsfor inflation. We find that these forecasts do not...