Common shocks, similarities in central bank reaction functions, and international trade potentially produce common components in international inflation rates. This paper characterizes such links in international inflation rates with a dynamic latent factor model that decomposes 64 national...

We develop metrics based on Shapley values for interpreting time-series forecasting models, including "black-box" models from machine learning. Our metrics are model agnostic, so that they are applicable to any model (linear or nonlinear, parametric or nonparametric). Two of the metrics,...

The relative impacts of the monetised and non‐monetised deficit on output and inflation in the United States are assessed using annual data for the 1923‐1982 period. With Federal Reserve purchases of government debt serving as a measure of monetisation, the results of Granger causality tests...

The relative impacts of the monetised and non-monetised deficit on output and inflation in the United States are assessed using annual data for the 1923-1982 period. With Federal Reserve purchases of government debt serving as a measure of monetisation, the results of Granger causality tests...