Carvalho et al. (2023) propose a theoretical framework that explains longrun inflation expectations' dynamic using short-run inflation surprises and beliefs about monetary policy. In an empirical exercise, they show that this concise framework predicts long-term inflation expectations well over...

During the post-pandemic inflation surge, many central banks actively used communication about the inflation outlook as a policy tool to limit spillovers from realized to expected inflation. We present novel survey evidence showing that the ECB's guidance about the projected inflation path...

During the post-pandemic inflation surge, many central banks actively used communication about the inflation outlook as a policy tool to limit spillovers from realized to expected inflation. We present novel survey evidence showing that the ECB's guidance about the projected inflation path...

"This paper develops a new approach to change-point modeling that allows for an unknown number of change points in the observed sample. Our model assumes that regime durations have a Poisson distribution. The model approximately nests the two most common approaches: the time-varying parameter...