made in the first oil price shock of the 1970s. In response to the challenges encountered in forecasting in recent years … and the lessons learnt, the OECD and other international organisations have sought to improve their forecasting techniques …

The paper examines a wide variety of models forecasting inflation, consumer survey, professional survey, judgmental …, market-derived, and monetary model. Despite differences between forecasting approaches, models produced generally similar …. Supply/demand imbalances explain much of the forecasting error from these models, especially over the short to medium term …

and forecasting and expectations shortfalls.With the development of inelastic inflation response in the mid-1990’s, risk …

economic expectations and forecasts, but also valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties … unemployment rate - the track record of the ECB SPF in forecasting has been broadly comparable to that of the Eurosystem. In …) underlying SPF expectations and an analysis and assessment of measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical assumptions are …