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This study focuses on the consensus forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for 1993-2017. These include the SPF forecasts of US 10-year Treasury rate (TBR), Moody's Aaa corporate bond rate (Aaa), CPI inflation, and real GDP growth. We show that both SPF and random walk...
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cointegration and fractional cointegration approaches. The findings from Engle and Granger cointegration test indicate that … inflation and nominal interest rate series are cointegrated. Since the conventional cointegration tests do not provide strong … evidence on the long run relationship, we also use fractional cointegration definition suggested by Cheung and Lai (J Bus Econ …
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