This paper aims to investigate whether the effect of inflation expectations, exchange rate, money supply, industrial production and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model with time varying transition...

The paper aims to investigate whether the effect of the backward-looking inflation expectations, nominal effective exchange rate, money supply, gross domestic product and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model...

The paper aims to investigate whether the effect of the backward-looking inflation expectations, nominal effective exchange rate, money supply, gross domestic product and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model...

The paper aims to investigate whether the effect of the backward-looking inflation expectations, nominal effective exchange rate, money supply, gross domestic product and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model...

If there is one thing economists agree on, probably it is that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Money also is thought to be related to the output level of the economy. The consensus among economists, however, does not go any further, and views differ on the characteristics of the...

This study analyzes core inflation concept for Turkey from the perspective of design and evaluation. To our best knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the performance of the core inflation measures for Turkey. We first define and calculate new core inflation indicators using the...

We provide Bayesian estimates of an empirical model of consumer price inflation for Turkey based on the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve. We decompose real marginal costs into domestic and foreign components and focus particularly on identifying the effect of the domestic component. We find...

We explore the asymmetric behaviour of inflation around the target level for inflation-targeting emerging markets. The first rationale behind this asymmetry is the asymmetric policy response of the central bank around the target. Central banks could have a stronger bias towards overshooting...

This paper studies welfare gains from disinflation in the presence of currency substitution. A distinctive small open economy model with currency substitution and intermediated working capital is constructed for this objective. It is found that welfare gains from disinflation are higher when the...

This paper analyzes how forming a monetary union affects consumption and earnings inequalities caused by adopting a common currency. We use a two country overlapping-generations model to investigate these effects. When countries choose to form a monetary union, the country with higher initial...