Public pension funds are, by far, the world's preeminent asset owners, with more than $ 25 trillions in combined assets. The largest pension funds are found in the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, the Netherlands and the UK ("pension superpowers"). How they are managed, their funding...

The estimation of an ordered probit model for currency reforms trying to end 31hyperinflations and three big inflations of the 20th century shows that the introduction of anindependent central bank and the adoption of a credibly fixed exchange rate are crucial for the successof a currency...

The COVID-19 pandemic massively interrupted economic activity all over the world. Governments responded by running huge fiscal deficits (financed via central banks) to support firms and consumers, thereby injecting purchasing power into the private sector on a large scale. With no corresponding...

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My empirical results suggest that the difference between...

Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing views about the natural rate hypothesis but have left an important question unanswered. Why was the Fed so slow to implement the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural...

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker’s disinflation (1979-1982). My empirical results suggest that the difference...

The downfall of Keynesian economics resulted from it being blamed for the inflation of the 1970s. In part this is because it had an inadequate theory of what caused inflation, having relied too heavily on the Phillips curve -- an idea found nowhere in Keynes' writings. In fact, Keynes was very...

Canada's inflation rate rose from 3.1 percent in June 2021 to 8.1 percent one year later. What is behind this rapid surge? And will higher interest rates ease the pressure? We explore these questions with a detailed analysis of recently rising inflation. We find a few items dominate, especially...

The aim of this paper is to rely on a wide variety of forecasts and survey based estimates of inflationary expectations since the early 1990s for a group of 9 economies, 5 of which explicitly target inflation, and ask: To what extent are disagreements over forecasts of inflation driven by...

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both 'naïve' forecasts, and forecasts...