Showing 1 - 10 of 2,361
sustainable employment? To address that question, this paper estimates a New Keynesian model with unemployment and performs a … that such a policy would have generated a sizable increase in unemployment and resulted in an undesirably low rate of … probability of an unemployment rate greater than 8 percent would have been as high as 80 percent, while the probability of an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014187799
coming from the unemployment rate. The results are very similar to those obtained without this variable indicating poor … additional information in the unemployment rate to identify the output gap. Other estimations of the output gap are performed. I …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005056569
positive relationship between inflation and unemployment. The results provide some evidence that the trade-off between … inflation and the unemployment rate in the short-run worsens as the mean rate of inflation increases. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005744361
One of the key inputs for inflation targeting regime is the right identification of inflationary or disinflationary pressures. These pressures are usually approximated by the output gap. In this paper we provide an estimation of the Peruvian output gap using a multivariate unobserved component...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005699611
One of the key elements for inflation targeting regime is the right identification of inflationary or disinflationary pressures through the output gap. In this paper we provide an estimation of the Peruvian output gap using a multivariate unobserved component (MUC) model, relying on an explicit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209354
For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647457
In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312036
We test the importance of multivariate information for modelling and forecasting inflation's conditional mean and variance. In the literature, the existence of inflation's conditional heteroskedasticity has been debated for years, as it seemed to appear only in some datasets and for some lag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328579
We introduce a time series model that captures both long memory and conditional heteroskedasticity and assess their ability to describe the US inflation data. Specifically, the model allows for long memory in the conditional mean formulation and uses a normal mixture GARCH process to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288125
We use a very general bivariate GARCH-M model and quarterly data for five Asian countries to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on in°ation and output growth. We conclude the following. First, in the majority of countries uncertainty regarding the output growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005518407