One of the most significant characteristics of optimizing models is that the behavioral equations involved are typically forward looking, i.e., agents are concerned about the future rather than the past. This creates difficulties when modelling some of the business-cycle patterns widely observed...

This paper reports the theoretical development of a small aggregative model of output, employment, capital formation and inflation. The model (which we subsequently refer to as BHP) is designed to explain medium term cyclical growth in a small open economy. It allows explicitly for...

Im Rahmen eines monetären kaleckianischen Verteilungs- und Wachstumsmodells mit Konflikt-Inflation wird in dieser Arbeit die Rolle einer Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment (NAIRU) analysiert. Die kurzfristige Stabilität der NAIRU wird untersucht, indem die Effekte von steigenden...

In Kaleckian models of distribution and growth the equilibrium rate of capacity utilisation may persistently diverge from the "normal rate" of utilisation. We assess this problem following the approach by Dumenil/Levy (1999) who consider the "normal rate" of utilisation in a monetary production...

We analyze if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influencesor more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the lastfew years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. Theempirical part...

Nominal and real U.S. interest rates (1997–2007) are combined with inflationexpectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to calculate time series ofrisk premia. It is shown that survey data on inflation and output growth uncertainty,as well as a proxy for liquidity premia can...

We analyze if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the last few years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. The empirical part...

In this paper, it is analyzed whether core money growth helps to predict future inflation in a useful and reliable way. Using an out-of-sample forecasting exercise and a stability analysis, it is shown that core money growth carries important information not contained in the inflation history,...

We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation...

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...