This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates. A genuine real-time data … set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to … magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due …

This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates. A genuine real-time data … set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to … magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due …

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … specific to the euro area (in comparison with the United States).Monetary policy needs to stay accommodative to help guide …

cycles affect the conditional distribution of euro-area inflation forecasts. Using a quantile regression approach, I estimate …

From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB’s strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over …-term inflation expectations, in combination with monetary policy in the euro area being constrained by the effective lower bound … decades, but were in themselves not the main drivers of low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019. However, as they …

From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB’s strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over …-term inflation expectations, in combination with monetary policy in the euro area being constrained by the effective lower bound … decades, but were in themselves not the main drivers of low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019. However, as they …

We study recent inflation and labour market dynamics in the euro area within a general equilibrium framework. Rapid …

-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output gap estimates for euro area data. For many periods the cyclical component of …