U.S. inflation surged in 2021-22 and has since declined, driven largely by a sharp drop in goods inflation, though services inflation remains elevated. This paper zooms into services inflation, using proprietary microdata on wages to examine its relationship with service sector wage growth at...

We use a shift-share approach to estimate the impact of inward immigration on local inflation in the United States. We find that a higher rate of immigration reduces inflation, lowering it by about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points following a doubling of immigration. Higher immigration flows also...

The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified...

The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi-structural VAR where an expectation shock is identified...