We study how monetary policy communications associated with increasing the federal funds rate causally affect consumers inflation expectations in real time. In a large-scale, multi-wave randomized controlled trial (RCT), we find weak evidence that communicating these policy changes lowers...

This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trendinflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trendinflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflationexpectations in...