The behavior of inflation during the 1990s is consistent with the predictions of a model that assumes a constant long-run NAIRU and a constant long-run markup of output prices over unit labor costs. Within this framework, inflation fell during the late 1990s - despite low unemployment - chiefly...

Accurate forecasts of inflation are important to policymakers and to individuals who must make decisions on the basis of expectations about the future purchasing power of the dollar. ; Recent research on forecasting inflation has shown that interest rates, by themselves, may provide useful...