We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility of the ECB’s inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April...

This paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB's inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables...

We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022....

Anchored inflation expectations are of key importance for monetary policy. If long-terminflation expectations arewell-anchored, they should be unaffected by short-term economic news. This letter introduces newsregressions with multiple endogenous breaks to investigate the de- and re-anchoring of...

His paper introduces structural VAR analysis as a tool for investigating the anchoring of inflation expectations. We show that U.S. consumers’ inflation expectations are anchored in the long run because macro-news shocks are long-run neutral for long-term inflation expectations. The...

Well-anchored inflation expectations have become a key indicator for the credibility of a central bank’s inflation target. Since the outbreak of the recent financial crisis, the existence and the degree of de-anchoring of U.S. inflation expectations have been under debate. This paper...