The Fisher relation played a very different role in debates surrounding the Great Depression and the more recent Great Recession. This paper explores some of these differences, and suggests an explanation for them derived from a sketch of the idea's evolution between the two events, thus...

The paper investigates the role played by Friedman’s interpretation of the Brazilian inflation in his 1967 formulation of the natural rate hypothesis and in his 1976 discussion of indexation and other institutional arrangements in the face of chronic inflation. It is argued that, as an...

We solve a rational expectations model of price formation with nominal rigidity and information frictions analytically to study how dispersed information impacts inflation and inflation expectations, without imposing strong structural assumptions on the aggregate marginal cost. We derive a...

A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic...

This paper contrasts empirically four leading models of inflation dynamics - the accelerationist Phillips curve (APC), new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), hybrid Phillips curve (HPC) and sticky information Phillips curve (SIPC). We employ an encompassing Phillips curve specification that allows...

Central banks in most advanced economies have reacted similarly to the increase in inflation that started in 2021. They initially looked through the rising inflation by leaving monetary policy relatively unchanged. Then, after inflation continued to increase, central banks pivoted by quickly...

Recent survey evidence reveals misaligned inflation expectations among economic agents. While households associate higher expected inflation with lower output growth, professional forecasters often link higher future inflation to stronger economic fundamentals and higher output growth. Firms'...