Showing 1 - 10 of 67
Using a novel dataset that integrates inflation expectations with information on social network connections, we show that inflation expectations within one's social network have a positive, causal relationship with individual inflation expectations. This relationship is stronger for groups that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015189266
This paper presents novel causal evidence on the relationship between various communication channels employed by central banks and households' expectations about future inflation. In a pre-registered randomized survey experiment administered in 2022, we examine adjustment of inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014476307
This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on answers from nearly 60,000 respondents, our data cover the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540939
We analyze the Phillips curve relationship in the euro area and the U.S. using monthly survey data on expected inflation. The dataset enables us to estimate models of the Phillips curve without assuming rational expectation formation. We find evidence for a Phillips curve relationship consistent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014156424
Using a novel experimental setup, we study the direction of causality between consumers’ inflation expectations and their income growth expectations. In a large, nationally representative survey of US consumers, we find that the rate of passthrough from expected inflation to expected income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081778
Using novel survey evidence on consumer inflation expectations disaggregated by personal consumption expenditure (PCE) categories, we document the paradox that consumers' aggregate inflation expectations usually exceed any individual category expectation. We explore procedures for aggregating...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081851
We study how different forms of communication influence the inflation expectations of individuals in a randomized controlled trial. We first solicit individuals’ inflation expectations in the Nielsen Homescan panel and then provide eight different forms of information regarding inflation....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892124
Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy “dominates” monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013241439
Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy “dominates” monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244244
In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specifted ranges of inflation. We show in two large-scale experiments that responses vary when we modify the response scale. Asking an identical question with modifted response scales induces different answers: Shifting,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013490743