This paper develops a Bayesian quantile regression model with time-varying parameters (TVPs) for forecasting inflation … inflation with the ability of quantile regression to model flexibly the whole distribution of inflation. In order to make our …-based indicators for the prediction of the conditional distribution of inflation in the euro area, both in the short and longer run …

This paper analyzes euro area and U.S. inflation dynamics since the beginning of the 1990s by estimating New Keynesian … hybrid Phillips curves with time-varying parameters. We measure inflation expectations by subjective forecasts from Consensus … results indicate that in both economic areas the inflation dynamics have steadily become more forward-looking over time. We …

The paper examines the factors of global inflation acceleration in 2021-2022. We consider primarily the developed … economies, where rates of inflation over the last two years have exceeded multi-year highs and have significantly exceeded … target levels. We find that the cause of accelerating inflation was an imbalance between aggregate demand, which started to …

We assess the efficiency of monetary policy to guide inflation expectations in high and low regimes. Using quantile … regression we analyze the persistence of inflation expectations from the Consensus Economics Survey at different quantiles. We … Fed's unconventional monetary policy at the ZLB in thus ineffective in guiding inflation expectations. …

inflation differ over time. We show that the impact varies considerably over time, depends on the source of increased liquidity … (M1, M3-M1 or credit) and the underlying state of the economy (asset price boom-bust, business cycle, inflation cycle …

for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money … kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation … forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists' long-standing interest in the …

inflation differ over time. We show that the impact varies considerably over time, depends on the source of increased liquidity … (M1, M3-M1 or credit) and the underlying state of the economy (asset price boom-bust, business cycle, inflation cycle …

The consensus among central bankers is that higher inflation expectations can drive up inflation today, requiring … tighter policy. We assess this by devising a novel method for identifying shocks to inflation expectations, estimating a semi … data for the United States, we find that a positive inflation expectations shock is deflationary and contractionary …

The paper examines a wide variety of models forecasting inflation, consumer survey, professional survey, judgmental … mark a return to inflation below central bank targets, but there is no visibility for timing of this development …

This paper explores bidirectional linkage between inflation and its uncertainty by observing monthly data of 11 Eastern … European countries. The methodological approach comprises two steps. First, inflation uncertainty series have been created by … choosing an optimal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity- (GARCH) type model. Subsequently, inflation and …