Showing 1 - 10 of 1,200
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429910
We investigate drivers of Euro area inflation dynamics using a panel of regional Phillips curves and identify long-run inflation expectations by exploiting the crosssectional dimension of the data. Our approach simultaneously allows for the inclusion of country-specific inflation and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011764910
We propose an unobserved components model with stochastic volatility and structural shocks to explore the relevant factors that influence trend inflation in the USA. Using structural shocks that incorporate a broad set of information for the US economy, we find that four structural shocks have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014483507
The return of high inflation in Latin America (and worldwide) since 2021 has renewed concerns about the persistence of above-target inflation and a potential de-anchoring of inflation expectations. This paper shows that trend inflation estimation using forward-looking information can offer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015358007
This paper provides new survey evidence on firms' inflation expectations in the euro area. Building on the ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), we introduce consistent measurement of inflation expectations across countries and shed new light on the properties and causal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199513
This paper studies the impact of carbon pricing on firms' inflation expectations and discusses the potential implications for what constitutes the core of most central banks' mandate: price stability. Carbon policy shocks are identified from high-frequency changes in carbon futures price around...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014333769
This paper presents novel causal evidence on the relationship between various communication channels employed by central banks and households' expectations about future inflation. In a pre-registered randomized survey experiment administered in 2022, we examine adjustment of inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014476307
This paper introduces a novel measure of consumer inflation expectations: We elicit and combine inflation forecasts across categories of personal consumption expenditure to form an aggregated measure of inflation expectations. Drawing on answers from nearly 60,000 respondents, our data cover the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014540939
Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the real and monetary sides of the economy; yet, direct empirical research on the matter has been scarce at best. This paper therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271069
In this paper we systematically evaluate how central banks respond to inflation deviations from target. We present a stylized New Keynesian model in which agents' inflation expectations are sensitive to inflation deviations from target. To (re-)establish credibility, optimal monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294449