This paper discusses the likely evolution of U.S. inflation in the near and medium term on the basis of (1) past U.S. experience with very low levels of inflation, (2) the most recent Japanese experience with deflation, and (3) recent U.S. micro evidence on downward nominal wage rigidity. Our...

A growing body of literature examines alternatives to the rational expectations hypothesis in applied macroeconomics. This paper continues this strand of research by examining the role survey expectations play in the inflation process and reports three principal findings. One, short-run...

Intro -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Foreword -- 1 The Phillips Curve in Historical Context -- 2 Fifty Years of the Phillips Curve -- 3 Forecasting Inflation -- 4 The Labor Market and the Phillips Curve -- 5 Inflation Expectations -- 6 Evidence on Price Determination -- 7 Is the Phillips...