We revisit the sources of the bias in Federal Reserve forecasts and assess whether a precautionary motive can explain the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members to uncover members' implicit loss function. Our key finding is...

Which level of inflation should Central Banks be targeting? We investigate this issue in the contextof a simplified Agent Based Model of the economy. Depending on the value of the parameters thatdescribe the behaviour of agents (in particular inflation anticipations), we find a rich variety...

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post...

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post...

We examine the relative ability of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price level targeting (PLT) monetary policy rules to minimize both inflation variability and business cycle fluctuations in Canada for shocks that have important consequences for global commodity prices. We find that...

We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with...

Inflation scenarios in forecasts of the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) appear to converge to the inflation target (2.5%) in 8-9 quarters. We ask whether this is a coincidence or an inherent property of the CBI’s model, QMM. We formulate a sub-model, containing equations for inflation, inflation...

We introduce bounded rationality, along the lines of Gabaix (2020), in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada's adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to provide a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic impact of flexible...

Since 1991, the Bank of Canada has had an inflation‐targeting (IT) framework established by a joint agreement between the Bank and the Government of Canada. The framework is reviewed every five years as part of the process for renewing the inflation‐control agreement. This discussion paper...

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the Central Bank of Brazil's Small-Scale Structural Model (SSSM) as a supporting tool for the monetary policy decision process. The SSSM's CPI inflation projections accuracy for 1 to 3 quarters ahead was evaluated comparatively to those...