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This paper takes stock of forecasting and policy analysis system capacity development (FPAS CD), drawing extensively on the experience and lessons learned from developing FPAS capacity in the central banks. By sharing the insights gained during FPAS CD delivery and outlining the typical tools...
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and actual nominal GDP in the McCallum rule, as well as the output and inflation gaps in the Taylor rule. We find a …
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initial macroeconomic conditions of the simulations correspond to the high inflation environment of early 2022. The simulation … rational expectations for all Taylor rule parametrisations. Under hybrid expectations, the inflation rate is much more … persistent than under the rational expectations; three years is not enough to reach the inflation target of two percent, even for …
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This paper investigates two stages of transmission through which inflation stabilization policy affects headline … inflation by estimating a threshold cointegration model. The paper finds that asymmetric monetary shocks passing-through food … headline inflation by means of stimulating food supply could unavoidably inflate food prices more than it could deflate it …
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The paper examines the factors of global inflation acceleration in 2021-2022. We consider primarily the developed … economies, where rates of inflation over the last two years have exceeded multi-year highs and have significantly exceeded … target levels. We find that the cause of accelerating inflation was an imbalance between aggregate demand, which started to …
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