This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …

This paper uses a ‘trendy' approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …

currency rationing. This in turn ignites inflation due to external bottlenecks since many sectors face supply constraints as … growing distributive conflict and fuels inflation further, as workers oppose to the lowering of real wages. Moreover, the … parallel market devaluation-inflation spiral, which threatens to turn into hyperinflation. Nevertheless, we argue that …

This study analyses the aspect of inflation expectations management in the context of inflation targeting by … particularly focusing on the impact of exchange rate pass-through to inflation expectations in a small open economy. We also … augment the inflation expectations function with GDP, inflation, unemployment, fiscal stance, oil prices, and money supply …

This paper uses a “trendy” approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …‐frequency and slow moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow‐moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …

macroeconomic effects. This finding requires inflation expectations to adjust counterfactually large. When modeling inflation …

This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

We use parametric power ARCH models of the conditional variance of inflation to model the relationship between … inflation and its uncertainty using monthly data for Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden over a period ranging from 1962 to 2004 ….For all three countries inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by Friedman. Increased …

This paper examines the long-run effects of supply shocks (such as oil shocks) on inflation in the United States. The … persistence of supply shocks in U.S. inflation fell considerably during the period of Volcker's disinflation (1979-1982). My … the behavior of inflation expectations-agents expected shocks to persist in the pre-Volcker period, but not in the post …

This paper studies the importance of money for inflation in the euro area. An inflation equation is derived from a … small model that combines the supply and demand for money with a Phillips curve and the assumption that inflation … expectations develop adaptively. The model's solution attributes an impact on inflation not to actual money growth but to its core …