Competition is intense among rival technologies and success depends on predicting their future trajectory of performance. To resolve this challenge, managers often follow popular heuristics, generalizations, or “laws” like the Moore’s Law. We propose a model, Step And Wait (SAW), for...

The idea of a flattening world has captured the public imagination, yet the income gap between rich and poor countries has widened. The net effect of these two trends on the speed of new product diffusion across the world has remained an open question. This study provides an answer by analyzing...

Understanding technological change is of critical importance to marketers, as it bears new markets, new brands, new customers, and new market leaders. This paper examines the deviation among reviews of a technology's performance and its consequences for inferences on technology evolution...

The Bass (1969) model has been a standard for analyzing and predicting the market penetration of new products. The authors demonstrate the insights to be gained and predictive performance of Functional Data Analysis (FDA), a new class of non-parametric techniques that has shown impressive...

While a time-based segmentation approach to customer segmentation for new products allows firms to identify consumers in the innovators and the early adopters segments, we add a profitability-based perspective to generate new insights. Using six years of data on the adoption of technology...