We model 1927-1997 U.S. business failure rates using a time series approach based on unobserved components. Clear evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates. The cycle has a period of around 10 years. We also detect longer term movements in default probabilities and default...

We propose the CoJPoD, a novel framework explicitly linking the cross-sectional and cyclical dimensions of systemic risk. In this framework, banking sector distress in the form of the joint probability of default of financial intermediaries (reflecting contagion from both direct and indirect...

This article presents a comprehensive framework for valuing financial instruments subject to credit risk and collateralization. In particular, we focus on the impact of default dependence on asset pricing, as correlated default risk is one of the most pervasive threats to financial markets. Some...

Some homeowners might intentionally skip mortgage payments that they can afford to be eligible for mortgage modification programs, such as Home Affordable Mortgage Program (HAMP). We use a natural experiment to investigate such strategic behavior. We find that the modification program not only...

Strategic default behavior suggests that the default process is not only a matter of inability to pay. Economic costs and benefits affect the incidence and timing of defaults. As with prior research, the authors find that people default strategically as their home value falls below the mortgage...

This paper explores default in the FinTech marketplace lending market using a dataset of both extensive credit and soft information for borrowers from the largest marketplace lender in the United States. I find that both macro and regional economic conditions play a role in consumer default and...

Exposure-at-default (EAD) is one of the most interesting and most difficult parameters to estimate in counterparty credit risk (CCR). Basel I offered only the non-internal Current Exposure Method (CEM) for estimating this quantity whilst Basel II further introduced the Standardised Method (SM)...

Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems, Inc. (“MERS, Inc.”) owns legal title to some 30 million mortgages in the United States. The company, which was a key part of the mortgage securitization apparatus in the late 1990s and 2000s, is now under intense pressure from public and private...

We examine the mechanism through which a financial crisis affects the default risk of real economy firms. Specifically, firms with strong dependence on bank financing suffer higher increases in default risk than firms with no such dependence. Conversely, firms relying solely on financing from...