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We introduce here for the first time the long-term swap rate, char- acterised as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore we analyse the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, and the long-term simple rate, considered as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013020050
We introduce here the idea of a long-term swap rate, characterized as the fair rate of an overnight indexed swap (OIS) with infinitely many exchanges. Furthermore, we analyze the relationship between the long-term swap rate, the long-term yield, (F. Biagini, A. Gnoatto & M. Härtel (2018) Affine...
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It is well known that the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model to study the term structure of interest rates, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the current market environment with negative short interest rates. Moreover, the diffusion term in the rate dynamics goes to zero...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955552
In this work we present our findings of the so‐called CIR#, which is a modified version of the Cox, Ingersoll & Ross (CIR) model, turned into a forecasting tool for any term structure. The main feature of the CIR# model is its ability to cope with negative interest rates, cluster volatility...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227556
The aim of this paper is to propose a new methodology that allows forecasting, through Vasicek and CIR models, of future expected interest rates (for each maturity) based on rolling windows from observed financial market data. The novelty, apart from the use of those models not for pricing but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895022
The aim of this paper is to propose a new methodology that allows forecasting, through Vasicek and CIR models, of future expected interest rates based on rolling windows from observed financial market data. The novelty, apart from the use of those models not for pricing but for forecasting the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845850
The purpose of this study is to suggest a new framework that we call the CIR#, which allows forecasting interest rates from observed financial market data even when rates are negative. In doing so, we have the objective is to maintain the market volatility structure as well as the analytical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861522