It's hard to make a firm prediction as to when the Fed will raise interest rates.

A development of a simple model in which interest rate claims are priced in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton paradigm and so incorporate full information on the term structure. The volatility structure for forward rates is humped and includes as a special case the exponentially dampened volatility...

A discussion of the circumstances under which interest rate rules are consistent with nominal determinacy in macroeconomic models.

A discussion of how mortgage lenders might use posted lending terms to signal both their eagerness to take new loan applications and their lending standards.

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under which will it have the opposite effects? The authors answer these questions in a general class...

Using the yield curve helps forecast real growth over the period 1875 to 1997. Using both the level and slope of the curve improves forecasts more than using either variable alone. Forecast performance changes over time and depends somewhat on whether recursive or rolling out of sample...

The authors analyze the restrictions necessary to ensure that the interest-rate policy rule used by the central bank does not introduce real indeterminacy into the economy. They conduct this analysis in a flexible price economy and a sticky price model that satisfies the natural rate hypothesis....

A presentation of an equilibrium bond-pricing model driven by two stochastic factors: the real interest rate and the expected rate of inflation. The models parameters are estimated using a maximum-likelihood technique based on a Kalman filter.

The linkages between term structures separated by finite time periods can be complex. Indeed, in general, the dynamics of the term structure could depend on the entire set of information revealed since the earlier date. This path dependence, which causes difficulties in pricing interest rate...

Benhabib, Schmitt-Grohe, and Uribe (2003) argue that if you relied solely on local analysis you would be led to believe that aggressive, backward-looking interest rate rules are sufficient for determinacy. But from the perspective of global analysis, backward-looking rules do not guarantee...