1. Sea change in the west -- 2. Global theories of secular stagnation -- 3. Transition theory -- 4. Empirical aspects of the transition theory -- 5. The long wave hypothesis -- 6. Transition in the nineteenth century : the British climateric 1860-1900 -- 7. A re-run of the 1970s -- 8. The...

Using annual data for Israel over the period 1960-1989 the authors estimate an econometric model for the supply and demand for exports. A novel feature is that domestic absorption crowds-out export supply. Exports are imperfect substitutes in world markets for tradeable produced abroad - the...