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This paper provides a new perspective on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle by referring to the expectations building mechanism in foreign exchange markets. We analyze the role of expectations regarding macroeconomic fundamentals for expected exchange rate changes. In doing so, we assess...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012990178
This paper re-investigates the implications of monetary policy rules on changes in exchange rate, in a risk-adjusted, uncovered interest parity model with unrestricted parameters, emphasizing the importance of modeling market expectations of monetary policy. I use consensus forecasts as a proxy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009244259
The study investigates the profitability of 1024 moving average and momentum models and their components in the yen/dollar market. It turns out that all models would have been profitable between 1976 and 1999. The pattern of profitability is as follows. The models produce more single losses than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132461
The paper shows that currencies of countries with persistent current account surpluses and high foreign-currency denominated assets, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, are under persistent appreciation pressure, particularly when the centres of the world monetary system follow...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011309557
The Japanese zero-interest rate period provides a “natural experiment” for investigating the effectiveness and transmission channels of sterilized intervention when traditional monetary policy options are constrained. This paper takes advantage of the fact that all interventions in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038672
The Japanese zero-interest rate period provides a “natural experiment” for investigating the effectiveness and transmission channels of sterilized intervention when traditional monetary policy options are constrained. This paper takes advantage of the fact that all interventions in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008659226
The Japanese zero-interest rate period provides a “natural experiment” for investigating the effectiveness and transmission channels of sterilized intervention when traditional monetary policy options are constrained. This paper takes advantage of the fact that all interventions in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008698355
We investigate whether foreign exchange intervention volume matters for the exchange rate effects of intervention. Our investigation employs daily data on Japanese interventions from April 1991 to April 2012 and time-series estimations, non-temporal threshold analysis, as well as binary choice...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009536556
This paper provides an empirical investigation of transmission channels of central bank foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero and traditional monetary policy options are constrained. The paper develops empirically testable hypotheses regarding the functioning of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013011398
Previous research on the dynamic linkages between international financial markets focused on bivariate inter-equity or inter-currency relationships and do not allow a specific role for the currency or equity market, respectively. In this paper, we hypothesize that there are important, yet not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014069928