Long-horizon predictability is not a myth. We propose a new analytical standard error for predictive regressions that does not impose the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable and exhibits substantial power gains relative to popular tests. Deriving the covariance matrix under the...

Winner stocks have higher risk exposure to Fama and French's (1993) three factors (FF3F) than loser stocks during good economic times, and therefore should earn higher expected returns. Employing the conditional FF3F model to risk adjust returns on winner and loser stocks can reduce the average...